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Many people right now are bored just hanging at home and miss socializing ready to get out
If you go out and about during this pandemic and attend an event or house party here in Louisiana just how big of a risk is it that you’ll run into someone who has COVID 19?
According to a new risk assessment tool from Georgia Tech, it’s very likely even if you follow Governor John Bel Edwards mandate limiting to 50 people for an inside event.
The tool estimates the likelihood of encountering one or more individuals who may have the coronavirus based on the size of the event and the parish.
“It’s kind of a high school probability that a lot of us have forgotten,” said Mallory Harris. a Stanford Ph.D. student who is part of the project. She says it’s more simple to get to that number than you think.
“It’s the same as if you’re drawing marbles out of a hat with one red one and you pick out 10,” said Harris.” “What’s the probability that you don’t pick the red one? So it ends up being a (1-p)n is what the probability actually is.”
Here in Lafayette if you’re looking at going to an event with 100 people there’s a 99 % that one or more people there will be infected.
If there is 50 people there, there is a 98% chance.
A ten-person house party goes to 56% chance.
The researchers say they hope this tool will give people a better understanding and help them plan and prepare.
“We think about giving people a concrete number of how risky is it to go to the sporting event or this barbecue will help them,” said Harris.
“If you have in your mind there’s an 87% chance that it’s one of the people there that’ll encourage people to take those precautions and protect themselves and protect others.”
The White House COVID 19 task force has recommended Louisiana to move to limiting ten people at events with the surge in cases.